Will FOMC Minutes Save the Market?

Updated: Oct 12

As the federal reserve continues to introduce interest rate hikes at a rapid pace, many individuals are beginning to doubt the strength of the market. This week may be the final straw in the bag.

Here are some important dates to note down:

  • Monday October 10th

  • Wednesday October 12th

  • Thursday October 13th

Monday October 10th

Yes, the stock market will be open on October 10th, 2022. At 1:35pm EST, Vice Chair Lael Brainard is set to speak on restoring price stability in an uncertain economic environment. Though this may not serve as a major catalyst to the direction of the market, I expect that some key comments will be made that will help foreshadow future decisions of the Fed.

Wednesday October 12th

At 1:45pm EST, Vice Chair Michael S. Barr will be speaking on new technologies, the Fed, and inclusion. This meeting will be held during the 2022 D.C. Fintech Week in Washington D.C. Matters that will be discussed during the meeting will be in relation to the fintech ecosystem: crowdfunding, online lending, cryptocurrencies, cybersecurity, AI, open banking, etc. These discussions tend to serve as a catalyst to the above-mentioned industries/sectors - a great incentive to focus on those particular matters.

Saving the most important for last, this is also the day for FOMC Minutes, which will be held at 2pm EST to discuss the Fed's meeting held on September 20th and 21st. Based on historical movements, the market will likely see drastic volatility between 1:35-2:10pm EST. If you are an options trader, get ready for a ride.

Thursday October 13th

Though there is CPI data being released on this day, I can confidently state that through study of technical analysis, we will see a significant move in the S&P. Charts show a clear area of high confluence (AOHC) at the start of the trading day. For those that do not know, an AOHC is a point in which two lines meet - be it trendlines, moving averages, or a combination. These areas often see a drastic increase in volume and cause severe volatility and stress. Put the two together and you get severely large movements.

S&P500 ($SPY) Key Support

  • 360.40

  • 359.15

  • 356.95

  • 354.20

S&P500 ($SPY) Key Resistance

  • 363.65

  • 364.50

  • 366

  • 367.70

Trading Wing Quick Theory

I do not believe that we have come to an end of the bearish market. Based on the weekly candles for last week, we may have set up for a reversal through technical analysis. However, the fundamentals are in-play for this week and I believe that if we do bounce, we will simply see a bounce back to the 368 region before falling back down and testing the high-340's to low 350's by October 18th. If we do not see a bounce from the events listed above, then we will see the target range by end of week.

What do you think will happen this week? Will the bearish market come to an end, or do we proceed to work down?

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